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Wednesday, October 01, 2003

Posted by Jake
Who's Vulnerable?

THE MEDIA'S PROBLEM in assessing a president's future is invariably seeing the future as a straight-line projection of the present. It rarely works out that way.

...

At some point, probably late this year or early next, the economy should begin producing jobs. It's inevitable. Productivity gains require faster growth than before for job creation to kick in, but 4 percent to 6 percent growth would suffice. The three million jobs lost since Bush took office won't be entirely offset, but the recovery should take a major bite. The last step is for the public to perceive a revived economy. The public's view is a lagging indicator, but it doesn't lag forever. For the purpose of his re-election, President Bush has until mid-2004 for the public to sense the improved trajectory of the economy. That's plenty of time.

The media always lives in the moment on these things, but if this is as bad as things get I am not really that concerned. This recovery isn't going to stay jobless for much longer, and the improvement in Iraq is rapidly becoming undeniable.

Brian -- Dude, I blogged this yesterday...


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