diet coke for breakfast
Thursday, January 15, 2004
Posted by Tanstaafl
Woman pleads no contest to lying about lost lottery ticket
According to my calculations, if the woman believed that she had better than a 1 in 15,000 chance of getting the payout, then she had to take the shot.
This assumes that the lump sum payment would be $100 million (I don't know the actual amount).
I further assume that her time is worth $15 an hour. She may make more than that, but honestly, some time you're really just sitting around. On the other hand, I consider my sleep pretty valuable... so I'm open to argument on the correct hourly "wage".
That means that the potential cost of the worst possible sentence was
6 months X 30 days X 24 hours X $15/hour = $64,800 + $1,000 fine = $65,800.
If the expected value of the prize is greater than the penalty... then why not. So, $100mm/65.8K = 15,198.