diet coke for breakfast
Monday, October 25, 2004
Posted by Jake
I will save my vote for another post (I have decided). But I think it is prediction time for how the election is going to turn out. This is likely going to be the most interesting election night in my lifetime, so I will weigh in on what I think will happen.
Kerry will win NH and OH, states that Bush carried in 2000. I never believed that Bush was going to win OH this time around. Too hard hit by the downturn.
Bush will win WI and IA two states that Gore won. I just spent time in WI, and seriously those people are way more quirky than you would believe.
The rest of the states will remain in the same hands. Note, this leaves Florida in Bush's hands. That is the one state I am going to really watch because it is just too close to call. I think Bush will take it in the end, but this is going to be one hell of an evening. The other ones I am watching are OH and WI. If Bush wins OH again and didn't lose FL game over for Kerry. I also think that in spite of much hype, CO and AR will vote Kerry right around the time that hell freezes over. I don't believe the polls. I've lived in CO and it is not a blue state. They may have blue representatives (they will likely elect Ken Salazar), but they are still part of the Bible belt.
Totals: Bush gets precisely 271 electoral votes and Kerry 267. Damn that is close.
Post election: I do not believe the CO amendment to divide their votes will pass. Cue the lawyers and what will no doubt be weeks of litigation. Lets just hope all the electors vote the way their states wanted.